HEFA Pathway Priced at €2,085/Ton: EU Releases SAF Reference Prices

HEFA Pathway Priced at €2,085/Ton: EU Releases SAF Reference Prices

The SAF market, as a high-end sector in the green fuel industry, has long been a key focus for stakeholders. Recently, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) released the 2024 ReFuelEU Aviation Fuel Reference Prices, providing authoritative data from official sources.

SAF Market Price Analysis

Despite the current boom in the SAF market, data reveals a significant 24.67% price drop in 2024 compared to 2023, with SAF priced at €2,085/ton—a decrease of €683/ton. The primary driver behind this decline is the rapid expansion of global Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) production capacity, which doubled from 500,000 tons in 2023 to 1 million tons in 20241.

Production Pathway Prospects

Among the various SAF production routes, HEFA remains the dominant pathway, accounting for 95% of market supply. This dominance underscores HEFA’s advantages in technological maturity and cost efficiency.

Meanwhile, alternative pathways such as Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) are gaining traction, with their production costs gradually approaching HEFA’s price levels—a trend worth monitoring. However, synthetic fuels (e-fuels), particularly those based on green hydrogen, face steep challenges. With production costs as high as €7,695/ton, e-fuels struggle to compete in the near term, hindering market adoption and placing immense pressure on R&D investments1.

Demand vs. Supply Outlook

Demand Side: With tightening environmental regulations, aviation industry demand for SAF will continue to rise.

Supply Side: While HEFA feedstock may face long-term constraints, the viability of alternative pathways hinges on technological breakthroughs and industrialization progress.